Узнайте подробности о короткой позиции AIMT и ожидаемом одобрении Palforzia

3 февраля 2020 в 15:20

Взято из нашей группы телеграм. 1. AIMT had 11.57M shares short on Jan 15. From trading patterns since then (share price going down as it appeared likely that delay in approval would happen), that number has likely increased. AIMT hit $38+ in after hours. At time, it's likely the short interest was worth more than $440 million. That is A LOT of money, and it's probable money in the pockets of very wealthy institutions. The desperately want to cover those shares, but they want to do it at lowest possible price. 2. Probably close to 100% of people who own any of AIMT knew about expected Palforzia approval by late January. Most retail longs (not institutions) wanted the price to pop up after approval and then take the quick and easy money, without having to worry about the company ever again. That means there is a large group of owners just itching to get out ASAP. They started selling Friday AH and many more will sell early this week.

32,75 $

+5,19%

Нравится

Не является индивидуальной инвестиционной рекомендацией

31 комментарий

Mirzo

3 февраля 2020 в 15:22

Вторая часть 3. There was a 600 point down day in the Dow on Friday, largely due to Coronavirus scares (and because the market was overextended). That might continue into this week because the virus news isn't getting better. People are selling anything/everything. And ETFs own plenty of AIMT shares. As people sell their ETFs, those are forced to sell some of their AIMT shares.

Нравится

LoveNN

3 февраля 2020 в 15:23

А ну теперь то все ясно-понятно

Нравится

Mirzo

3 февраля 2020 в 15:24

4. The shorts understand the best way to cover a short position is NOT to just start buying shares, but to first sell more shares. Read a fascinating book about it: "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator." The big money groups with the short positions may try to sell even more short to create something of a panic, especially a panic among those retails in #2 above. The selling by shorts, and the selling by anxious-to-get-out retails, and by ETFs might create a lot of selling pressure. As the price goes down, it might trigger stop loss orders by others, where they too sell. All of this selling pushes down the price of a stock. It is from these levels that shorts start to cover.

Нравится

Mirzo

3 февраля 2020 в 15:24

5. All of this selling is balanced by people who heard about Palforzia over the weekend and want to buy into it. It's not a bad idea because now AIMT is largely de-risked. People can now buy into the company at prices not much greater than Nestle paid in 2018! Since then, AIMT has made enormous strides and is a much better value today at $38 than it was in November 2018 at $31. 6. The best way to play AIMT is to wait out the process in steps 1-4 above. AIMT has enormous value. It has the first and only treatment for peanut allergies and there is huge pent up demand for it. In the weeks and months the focus will turn to revenues and the (obvious) buyout opportunity by Nestle. By then, the price should be well into the $40s if not $50s or $60s.

Нравится

Mirzo

3 февраля 2020 в 15:25

@LoveNN если что-то не понятно, могу перевести

Нравится

Пульс учит

Обучающие материалы об инвестициях от опытных пользователей