@Alexy @CaptainUSA
Выдержка из обзора Bank of America
The bottom line
We see the outcome of the proposed RVO rules as bullish refiners - particularly PBF who has under-complied with 2021 obligations. Lower RIN prices will now allow PBF to comply but at a lower cost given RIN costs have dropped; all refiners win in 2022 on lower RIN’s cost. However necessary biodiesel curtailment will take time - and this friction risks RIN prices not covering marginal feed stocks early in 2022.
The offset is the potential loss of SREs. Within our coverage we see DK as the biggest loser: DK has been under-complying with its obligation in 2021, anticipating that the SRE’s would be granted. Note: as at Sep 2021, DK estimates the net cost of accrued RINS is manageable at -$93mm.
4Q 21 / FY 2022 Refiners mark to market
All petroleum commodities have moved off-peak levels following crude oil lower in the wake of Omicron announcement during Thanksgiving week. While we haven’t seen cracks in oil demand fundamentals yet, our sector has a front seat to the mobility recovery, therefore any risk of renewed lockdowns or the delay of a full recovery will be felt on near term earnings. The forward market is the best proxy for volatile refining
margins. Here the latest price signals suggest that some modest downward revisions are
in order.