$AAL Measured by fleet size, scheduled passengers carried, and revenue per passenger mile, American Airlines is the world’s largest. Before the coronavirus grounded most air traffic, American was operating 6,800 daily flights to 350 destinations in 50 countries around the world.
American was showing quarterly profits up until the coronavirus struck. In Q4, the company reported earnings of $1.15 per share – but that has turned sharply negative in Q1. AAL showed a net loss of $2.65 in the first quarter, 22% worse than expected, and the losses are expected to worsen in Q2, to as much as $7.35. American had not posted a quarterly loss since 2013. The company is also burning $70 million in cash per day in the current quarter, but expects that figure to fall by nearly 30% by the end of June.
After absorbing the $2.24 billion net loss in Q1, AAL, like Boeing, suspended its dividend and buyback plans. Prior to this, the company has paid out 10 cents per share quarterly, reliably, for 6 years. Company management has put a priority on maintaining the balance sheet, with renewal of the dividend to come after air travel returns to more normal patterns.
Cowen's 5-star analyst Helane Becker is sanguine that American can weather the current storm. She writes of the company, “[AAL] is receiving a total of $10.6 Bn in aid through the CARES Act. We expect another capital raise in 3Q20, likely against their unencumbered asset base. In the near-term the company is taking action on the fleet by removing 100 aircraft to eliminate fleet complexity. American needs to continue to aggressively manage costs until revenues show signs of improving.”
Her cautiously optimistic line on the stock supports a Buy rating and a $15 price target. Becker’s target implies a robust upside potential of 48% in the coming year, reflecting the necessity of air travel in the modern world.
Overall, Wall Street isn’t quite ready to go all in on AAL. The stock has 17 reviews, including 4 Buys, 5 Holds, and 8 Sells. The share price, however, is an affordable $9.09, and the lost cost of entry does help mitigate risk. The average price target of $13.92 suggests an upside potential of 53%.