$CLOV Вопрос для умеющих читать финансовые пресс-релизы на английском. Рассмотрим два финансовых прогноза Сlover Health на 2021 год.
Сначала прогноз 1-го квартала
•Medicare Advantage membership is expected to be in the range of 68,000 - 70,000 by December 31, 2021, a growth rate of 17% - 21% as compared to year end 2020.
•For the Medicare Direct Contracting program, while the Company expects to have access to up to 200,000 Medicare beneficiaries through its contracts with Participating Providers, we believe we will end 2021 with between 70,000 - 100,000 total aligned beneficiaries.
•Total revenues are expected to be in the range of $810 - $830 million, inclusive of a preliminary estimate of approximately $20 - $30 million of revenue generated from Direct Contracting. GAAP revenue estimates for Direct Contracting are dependent on the finalization of accounting treatment, which we expect will be completed by the end of the second quarter of 2021.
•Total Medicare spend under management, which includes revenues from the Medicare Advantage program plus the estimated CMS benchmark expenditures for Direct Contracting, is expected to be in the range of $1.5 - $1.6 billion.
•Normalized MCR (Non-GAAP) for Medicare Advantage is expected to be in the range of 94% - 97%.
•MCR for Direct Contracting is expected to be approximately 100%, net of savings targets required by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (“CMS”).
•Adjusted Operating Expenses (Non-GAAP), which we define as Salaries and benefits plus General and administrative expenses less stock-based compensation expense, is expected to be between $250 and $270 million.
•Normalized Adjusted EBITDA loss (Non-GAAP) is expected to be in the range of $(240) - $(190) million.
Теперь прогноз 2-го квартала
•Medicare Advantage membership is expected to be in the range of 68,000 - 70,000 by December 31, 2021, a growth rate of 17% - 21% as compared to year end 2020.
•For the Medicare Direct Contracting program, the Company expects the number of aligned beneficiaries to remain roughly flat for the remainder of 2021 (62,025 as of June 30, 2021). Further, the Company expects a significant increase in total aligned beneficiaries on January 1, 2022 when claims aligned beneficiaries for 2022 become active.
•Total revenues are expected to be in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion. This reflects MA revenue of $760 million to $790 million and Medicare Direct Contracting revenue of $650 million to $700 million.
•Normalized MCR (Non-GAAP) for Medicare Advantage is expected to be in the range of 94% - 97%.
•Adjusted Operating Expenses (Non-GAAP), which we define as Salaries and benefits plus General and administrative expenses less stock-based compensation expense, is expected to be between $250 and $270 million.
•Normalized Adjusted EBITDA loss (Non-GAAP) is expected to be in the range of $(250) - $(210) million. This excludes gross profit or loss from Direct Contracting, reflecting the fact that we do not yet have sufficient claims data to prepare a “normalized” result for the Direct Contracting segment.
Теперь вопрос. В чем состоял основной прорыв прогноза 2-го квартала по отношению к 1-ому?