ENDP

ENDP we all live in a yello submarine, yello submarine, grey-yello submarine 😁✌️

ENDP Выдержка из статьи по Ендо (выводы). Не ИИР! Endo International: Loses Vasostrict Trial The Impact Eagle said on its second quarter conference call that it expects to start marketing its version of the drug by the end of the year. As I wrote in my last piece on the company, I believe that as much as 30% of ENDP's revenue and EBITDA is at risk by losing the generic suit against Eagle. Even assuming no negative leverage to lost vasostrict revenue, losing 1/3 of that revenue would almost certainly translate to at least a commensurate decline of vasostrict EBITDA. 30% of 30% of $1.2billion EBITDA is over $100mm. Eagle will likely take several months to roll out, but I would expect ENDP to exit 2022 with a run rate EBITDA that is $100mm less from vasostrict. That potentially brings EBITDA to the $1-1.1 billion range. Even assuming the company does not lose any more opioid cases (which I think is basically impossible), such EBITDA leaves the company at 6.5x leverage for 2023. Any losses from opioid cases just adds to that leverage. While I know the situations are different, Teva Pharma (TEVA) currently trades at 6.9x EV/EBITDA. This indicates virtually no value to ENDP's equity, especially when one factors in the strong possibility of further opioid liabilities in the relatively new future and the costs of any bankruptcy filings. If opioid liabilities are big enough, the unsecured bonds become impaired. The stock plummeted initially when the announcement came out. At the time of this writing (Tuesday 8/31/21 afternoon), the stock is unchanged on the day at $2.30. I think that's likely due to short covering. Conclusion I now think this is an almost definite bankruptcy situation with no equity recovery. That does not mean the stock trades at zero right away. I have seen a number of situations where stocks trade at weird stub values until bankruptcy emergence and equity is officially wiped out. But in my mind, there is no equity value left here unless the company somehow miraculously escapes further opioid liability.